Simultaneous Equations Models For Fava bean Crop in Egypt

نوع المستند : أبحاث علمیة متخصصة فی الاقتصاد الزراعی

المؤلفون

1 قسم اقتصاد زراعي ، جامعه عين شمس

2 قسم الأقتصاد الزراعي کلية الزراعة جمعة عين شمس

3 قسم اقتصادزراعي، كلية زراعة، جامعة عين شمس

4 قسم اقتصاد زراعي ، كلية الزراعة، جامعة عين شمس

المستخلص

Despite the importance of the fava bean crop for leguminous crops in Egypt, its production has been decreasing in the past years, as it decreased from about 305 thousand tons in 2007 to about 101 thousand tons in 2019. And that there is a significant change in the percentage available for consumption to obtain fava beans, as the average consumption of fava beans crop increased from about 395.0 thousand tons in 2010 to about 964.0 thousand tons in 2019. The food gap in Egypt from the fava bean crop during the period (2010-2019) fluctuated between high and low, and the food gap of the fava bean crop during the period (2010-2019) . By comparing the results of the forecast using the simultaneous model by predicting using the general direction equations, the credibility of the results of the model is shown, where by estimating the standard deviation of the variables under study, it is found that the value of the deviations of the values of the variables under study using the model is low using the general trend equations Thus, an increase towards the use of standard models in prediction, due to their importance in clarifying the interchangeable and intertwined relationships between variables, which is difficult to clarify models with a single equation, the expected values of the model variables are more realistic and logical than those that are estimated using other methods of estimation.

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